The estimated price and income elasticities of −0.011 and 0.33 imply that residential electricity demand in South Africa is price and income inelastic. Working off-campus? Unlimited viewing of the article PDF and any associated supplements and figures. The volume of electricity available for distribution also decreased, falling by 1,3% year-on-year. EIA: 37,970,870: 2019: 4,018: 458 27 … Keywords: Electricity demand; Forecasting; South Africa 1. South Africa’s electricity is generated by nuclear (5 per cent) and hydroelectric facilities (2 per cent). Looking forward, we estimate Electricity Production in South Africa to stand at 21300.00 in 12 months time. In addition to setting annual DSM Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, 168). The end-use of elec-tricity in the country is currently divided among domestic (17.2%), agriculture (2.6%), mining (15%), industrial (37.7%), commercial (12.6%), transport (2.6%) and general (12.3%) end users (DME, 2008; Eskom, 2010). View the article PDF and any associated supplements and figures for a period of 48 hours. Based on IMF calculations and Eskom policies, the electricity consumption for 2030 is estimated to be 148,481 GW h or 158,288 GW h according to the first and second scenario respectively. These included three stations in Mpumalanga - Komati in Middelburg, Camden in Ermelo and Grootvlei in Balfour. Journal of Econometrics 138, 2, 547; 2008. Peak demand in South Africa has been 34,481 MW in 2015/2016 with Eskom transmitting/distributing 214,487 GWh to South African customers. EIA: 100,388,070: 2019: 1,500: 171 25 Ukraine: 128,806: 2019 est. South Africa (Eskom, 2010). This analysis shows that electricity demand in South Africa is highly sensitive to cold temperature EIA: 69,625,580: 2019: 2,669: 305 24 Egypt: 150,579: 2018 est. Less electricity was generated in South Africa in January 2015 compared with January 2014, according to preliminary results. Hence, this paper aims at examining the asymmetric behaviour of the annual South African electricity demand (total, residential and non‐residential) for the period 1960–2012. EIA: 44,385,150: 2019: 2,902: 331 26 Poland: 152,573: 2019 est. Learn more. Unlimited viewing of the article/chapter PDF and any associated supplements and figures. Voltage in South Africa - Electricity Supply and Power Quality … South Africa’s Electricity Crisis 2 continues, the more severe will be its impact on economic growth and workers. Econometric Reviews 28, 246), the conditional symmetry test proposed by Bai and Ng (2001. South Africa needs over 40,000 MW new generation capacity by 2025 Eskom is part of Southern African Power Pool, a group of utilities in the region aiming to create a common market for electricity in the region Transmission and Distribution Overview Currently, the transmission of electricit y in South Africa is undertaken by Eskom According to Statistics South Africa, Eskom produces approximately 95% of South Africa’s electricity. Hence, econometric models examining the South African electricity demand during the same period are credible in their assumption of a linear data generating process. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed –until now- by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. Daily electricity demand forecasting in South Africa N. A. Makukule, C. Sigauke* and M. Lesaoana Department of Statistics and Operations Research, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, University of Limpopo, Turfloop Campus, P. Bag X1106, Sovenga, 0727. Alternative Contact. A decrease of ADT from 200C to 190C would result in an increase of about 0.51% in elec-tricity consumption. Electrical demand is bounded by the power plants available to provide supply at any time of the day including the need for reserve capacity. Enter your email address below and we will send you your username, If the address matches an existing account you will receive an email with instructions to retrieve your username, By continuing to browse this site, you agree to its use of cookies as described in our, I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of Use. To do so, three different tests were used: the entropy test proposed by Racine and Maasoumi (2007. We consider how these global shifts in electricity supply and demand are playing out in South Africa, where the electricity system to date has been controlled by a state-owned, largely coal dependent monopoly utility which owns the transmission grid, is responsible for 95 per cent of generation and 60 per cent of distribution. South Africa has a well-developed electricity network and one of the highest rates of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa’s DSM environmental framework Eskom DSM has been mandated by the NER to pursue these opportunities to realise the demand reduction targets that were established by the regulatory policy on energy efficiency and demand side management for the South African electricity industry. Within a short period, Eskom has applied to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) for the third time since the 2008 electricity crisis, proposing a multiyear price determination for the periods 2010−2011 and 2012−2013. South Africa… Use the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. An updated review of different forecasting methods can be found in [9,20]. Consumer price index (CPI), Producer price index (PPI), Unit value indices: exports / imports, Construction materialsprice indices. If you do not receive an email within 10 minutes, your email address may not be registered, Electricity demand for South Africa 1990–2030 (forecast from 2006 onwards). Additional to past problems, the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy. Electricity demand and ‘driver’ data A very important component of the regression modelling involved the collection of appropriate data for the relevant variables required. Table 3 shows the current electricity production figures for South Africa. This monograph is the contribution of the Public Servants Association (PSA) to assisting workers and the wider society make sense of the intricacies of South Africa… CHAPTER 8: ELECTRICITY 111 Trends in demand for electricity Between 1970 and 2000, electricity supply in South Africa exceeded electricity demand, which led to the mothballing of several power stations in the late 1980s and early 1990s. (1980. from 220C to 210C) electricity demand will increase marginally by 125 MW. Electricity Demand. In the long-term, the South Africa Electricity Production is projected to trend around 22000.00 Gigawatt-hour in 2022, according to our econometric models. Eskom’s electricity is mostly sold to municipalities (42%) that further distribute electricity to end-users, followed by industrial consumers (23%) and mining (14%). The literature dealing with the South African electricity case, to date, has not taken into account these changes and their effect to the symmetric behaviour of the residential and industrial electricity consumers. The plan also envisages that by 2030 South Africa will have an adequate supply of electricity and liquid fuels to ensure that economic activities and welfare are not disrupted, and that at least 95% of the population will have access to grid or off-grid electricity. The electricity demand in South Africa has experienced vast changes both from a policy point of view and due to the country's great industrialisation and urbanisation. electricity demand for South Africa. E(ADED= 23932 + 263 max(0,22 – ADT) + 138max(0,ADT– 18) (8) If temperature decreases by 10C (e.g. Between 2013 and 2014 the amount of electricity produced by Eskom has decreased by 1.82% whilst that produced by independent power producers has increased by 8.51%. Please check your email for instructions on resetting your password. EIA: 58,558,270: 2019: 3,591: 410 22 Turkey: 251,376: 2019 est. 4. EIA: 83,429,620: 2019: 3,013: 344 23 Thailand: 185,852: 2018 est. The volume of electricity produced fell by 1,5%. The literature dealing with the South African electricity case, to date, has not taken into account these changes and their effect Wind and solar energy generation contributed more electricity to Eskom’s grid than nuclear power in 2020. Electricity price South Africa Kalman filter abstract In South Africa, the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern. Forecasts for electricity demand in South Africa (2017 – 2050) using the CSIR sectoral regression model May 2017 (updated scenarios) Project report Prepared for: Eskom (as inputs into the Integrated Resource Plan) Document Reference Number: CSIR/BE/SPS/ER/2017/0013/B CSIR Groupwise DMS: 264844 (Pta General Library) An extension of the regres-sion-SARIMA modelling framework is discussed in Patrick Kelly (Chief Director)012 310 8290082 888 2248patrickke@statssa.gov.za. The rest of the paper is organized as follows, in Section 2 the data used is described and a preliminary analysis carried out. South Africa: 210,304: 2019 est. SARIMA)to daily peak demand (DPD) forecasting in South Africa. Although most Journal of Econometrics 103, 225) and the Triples test proposed by Randles et al. Eskom says that it has seen demand in the grid drop by a massive 6,000MW on Thursday ... Eskom reports massive drop in electricity demand as South Africa … The least-cost way to connect those without access is in most cases via the grid (81%) with the residual population served by mini-grids (12%) and stand-alone systems. The findings showed that there is weak evidence of asymmetry, given that the null hypothesis of symmetry can only be rejected at 10 per cent level of significance. experienced. The full text of this article hosted at iucr.org is unavailable due to technical difficulties. The regression-SARIMA modelling framework captures important drivers of electricity demand. Currently coal is by far the major energy source for South Africa, comprising around 80 percent of the country’s energy mix. The piecewise linear regression and the MARS models are . These factors are weather variables, eco-nomic and calendar effects and are known to influ-ence electricity demand. The electricity demand in South Africa has experienced vast changes both from a policy point of view and due to the country’s great industrialisation and urbanisation. South Africa has a large energy sector, being the second-largest economy in Africa. Data released by Statistics South Africa show that the estimated consumption of electricity in South Africa declined 7% year-on-year during January 2009. Abstract. Marietjie Bennett (Director)012 310 8077082 888 2194marietjieb@statssa.gov.za. If you have previously obtained access with your personal account, please log in. Electricity demand exhibits a large degree of randomness in South Africa, particularly in summer. The country consumed 0Jªÿ• ñ˜hٕÎhûýd{>q%rô=ˆõ`qlKg†ÌEž~Qe_õàá-t«ÿÚí0²qƒÌ3붚 e ¤a7sµÒEMâ2—dC}(ª5>i s˜v;Û«]ßÕV`¨Ë¯ Demand cannot exceed supply and there are no Table 3.1 shows that 190 789 322 MWh (megawatt hours) of electricity were sold to 7 272 809 customers in 2003. Learn about our remote access options, Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria0002, South Africa, Department of Economics and Econometrics, Faculty of Economic and Financial Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park2006, South Africa. G¢ÉТhÕAc5¬*»©{v×ÅSFUîlý~Â9ÇC1*‚ôj.,n4 4EÉ`³ê-éƒ}yXWó7¶µýþ Juӕ؉÷¸l ‡G ‰ô_º3YùV€÷0|Åé0‹žƒ|fe7wI®EÏ(×Ðé«,,hLuYœ South Africa ranks among the world’s cheapest producers and suppliers of both coal and electricity. The finding that a stable aggregate residential electricity demand function seems to exist would make forecasting of electricity need at the national level possible. and you may need to create a new Wiley Online Library account. qO¬¨ŸZf×6Yjëæ]óÝÑíEôÝNuSÕ-Ÿu¿ÔęníyÖ'¨Þ«SS´ã€Ó. According to the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy, South Africa’s total domestic electricity generation capacity is 58,095 megawatts (MW) from all sources. Data on national electricity consumption in South Africa from 1978 to 2010 was obtained from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), from the series of Of South Africa’s ener-gy demand, 29% is in the form of electricity (Eskom, 2010).